The Melt Up Will End in 2021

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By Steve Sjuggerud

The Melt Down is coming, my friend... Unfortunately, it will arrive this year.

Before you get bent out of shape with me for urging caution at the precise moment when things seem like they're getting really good, please keep this in mind...

I have been bullish – and right – on the stock market for nearly all of the last 12 years.

I am proud of that. But it's also why it pains me to tell you that the last 12 years of (mostly) good times for investors will likely end this year. (Nobody can know the future of course, but that is my prediction.)

I don't want to see that happen. But my years of experience tell me it's coming – and I want you to be ready.

NFTs Join the “Everything Bubble”

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BY JOHN RUBINO 

So bonds are obviously a bubble. And stocks have never been this overvalued. US houses have never been this expensive. Cryptos have had the greatest run in financial history. And the global money supply is soaring while most fiat currencies more-or-less hold their official value, which is another way of defining a bubble.

Guess that’s it then. The “everything bubble” really does include everything.

Wait, no. A new, even stranger bubble has suddenly joined the list. Digital assets called non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, are now attracting ludicrous amounts of hot money for things of seemingly dubious value. Just yesterday, for instance:

Welcome to the Wave of Inflation into 2024

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We still see that this cycle into 2024 will be one of inflation. Our computer has projected that this inflationary cycle would be one based on shortages. True, that that $1.9 trillion bill is just a Democrat’s wish-list. The $1,400 checks are for about 100 million. The fact that 70% of Americans approve of this and assume they are getting $1,400 checks, that is only 0.013571429% of the total bill. The fact that they would not even make it $2,000 shows that this is all about just their wish list for things that have nothing to do with COVID.

Many governments have been engaging in Quantitative Easing since 2014 with negative rates in Europe, but people have been hoarding cash rather than spending it. Worse still, they have been increasing tax enforcement and shutting down tax-havens and this has led to the deflationary wave which our model shows bottomed in January 2020.

Gold’s Cruel Performance: Should You Be Worried?

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It’s an alarming and uncomfortable feeling for many gold investors.

As stocks continue to soar, gold notched its worst month in 4 years falling 6% in February.

While a 6% down month may not feel great to your portfolio, it’s nowhere even close to some of the worst months gold has faced.

You’ll see in the table below that February’s 6% drop ranks 39th in gold’s all time worst months performance.

Gold, Buy the Dip?

History doesn’t always repeat itself, but the numbers speak for themselves…

Major declines commonly lead to higher prices 12 months out.

  • You can see that out of the top 20 declines, 70% of the time, a year later, prices are higher.

You can also see that there is no need to rush out and load up the first day after a big decline.

This indicator says the Nasdaq is split

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From Jay...

Let's try to spell this out as succinctly as possible. In general terms:

A lot of stocks making new highs and few making new lows = Bullish

A lot of stocks making new lows and few making new highs = Bullish

A lot of stocks making new highs and a lot of stocks making new lows = Bearish

A lot of stocks making new highs and few making new lows typically occurs during the heart of a bull market. Essentially, it is almost the definition of a bull market. A lot of stocks making new lows and few making new highs typically occurs near the end of a bear market, when "all appears lost."

On the other hand - a situation where a lot of stocks are making new highs at the same time a lot of other stocks are making new lows is commonly referred to as "churning." While the indexes may continue to move sideways to slightly higher, under the hood things are deteriorating.

The Global Financial End-Game

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By Charles Hugh Smith

The over-indebted, overcapacity global economy an only generate speculative asset bubbles that will implode, destroying the latest round of phantom collateral.

For those seeking a summary, here is the global financial endgame in fourteen points:

1. In the initial “boost phase” of credit expansion, credit-based capital ( i.e. debt-money) pours into expanding production and increasing productivity: new production facilities are built, new machine and software tools are purchased, etc. These investments greatly boost production of goods and services and are thus initially highly profitable.

Dow rallies 570 points in big turnaround, Nasdaq ends wild day 1.6% higher

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By Yun Li

U.S. stocks roared back from a sharp sell-off on Friday as a rally in bond yields eased, while a stronger-than-expected jobs report boosted optimism for a faster economic recovery.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 572.16 points, or 1.9%, to 31,496.30 after losing as much as 150 points. The S&P 500 ended the wild session 2% higher at 3,841.94 after shedding 1% earlier. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.6% to 12,920.15 as Apple climbed 1% and Microsoft gained 2%. At its low of the day, the tech-heavy benchmark dropped 2.6%.

The major averages bounced off their lows as bond yields retreated from their session highs. The 10-year Treasury yield eased back to 1.55% after popping above 1.6% to touch a 2021 high following data showing a surge in jobs growth.

28 Trillion Reasons to Have a Plan B

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By Simon Black

At the close of business on Monday March 1st, just a few days ago, the US national debt crossed $28 trillion for the first time in history.

To the penny, in fact, the national debt hit $28,004,376,276,999.35.

And bear in mind that figure doesn’t include the $1.9 trillion in ‘Covid stimulus’ that Uncle Sam is about to pass, let alone all the other deficit spending that they were already expecting for this current fiscal year.

So you can already see how the debt will quickly rocket past $30 trillion in no time at all.

It’s noteworthy that it took the United States more than two centuries to accumulate its first trillion dollars in debt– a milestone first reached on October 22, 1981.