We still see that this cycle into 2024 will be one of inflation. Our computer has projected that this inflationary cycle would be one based on shortages. True, that that $1.9 trillion bill is just a Democrat’s wish-list. The $1,400 checks are for about 100 million. The fact that 70% of Americans approve of this and assume they are getting $1,400 checks, that is only 0.013571429% of the total bill. The fact that they would not even make it $2,000 shows that this is all about just their wish list for things that have nothing to do with COVID.
Many governments have been engaging in Quantitative Easing since 2014 with negative rates in Europe, but people have been hoarding cash rather than spending it. Worse still, they have been increasing tax enforcement and shutting down tax-havens and this has led to the deflationary wave which our model shows bottomed in January 2020.