This Study Shows Why Emotional Investors Make Poor Decisions

At one point or another, even the most seasoned and experienced investors have made bad investment decisions.

Whether you heard about a hot stock or crypto and “bought the top” before a big plunge… or you held on to a big gain too long and watched your profits wither away… Fear likely played a role in your decision.

You see, the emotional roller coaster ride shakes many investors out of the market. They buy at tops and sell at bottoms…

This is the main reason the average investor severely underperforms the market. They have incredibly bad timing.

In fact, one study shows that profiting from the market is less about what you buy and more about when you buy and how long you hold.

So Easy a Baby Could Do It

The study – called “Selling Fast and Buying Slow” and authored by professors from the University of Chicago and Massachusetts Institute of Technology – analyzed the historical performance of 783 portfolios owned by both wealthy and institutional investors (like pension and hedge funds).

To judge the performance of these Wall Street elites, the study compared their results to a portfolio of alternatives randomly selected by a baby.

So no investment knowledge or even the ability to read was needed… just a baby randomly pointing at a screen…

And the results were pretty revealing.

Entering a Global Great Depression – David Morgan

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Economic analyst and financial writer David Morgan has gone against the majority in the past with predictions that seemed unbelievable at the time. One prediction last year is the Fed not cutting interest rates in 2023. The Fed didn’t, and Morgan is still predicting there will be no Fed interest rate cut anytime soon. Now, with a record high stock market, Morgan is predicting “We are entering into a global depression the likes of which the world has never seen.” The warning signs are many as Morgan explains, “When we enter a depression, people cannot keep up with inflation. So, they work even harder or more hours to try to make ends meet.”

Another sign, says Morgan, is all the bankrupt businesses that thrive on disposable income such as “Gold’s Gym, Neman Marcus, Hertz, JC Penny, GNC, Pier One, Belk’s founded in 1888, Revlon, David’s Bridal and Bed, Bath and Beyond. That is just a few, and that is the real economy. What you see on that list of bankrupt stores primarily is disposable income. . . . That is a sure sign of a depression. . . . This is a clear, concise and accurate picture of the truth. You don’t have to tell this to the girl with three jobs. She knows what is going on.”

‘New nine’ spot Bitcoin ETF volumes reach new daily high as BTC nears $55K

By Brayden Lindrea

BlackRock’s IBIT made up more than 50% of the daily trading volume and even smashed its own daily record by more than 30%.

exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have notched a new daily record as BTC surged as high as $54,938 on Monday.

Trading volumes for the nine topped $2.4 billion on Feb. 26, beating the prior record of $2.2 billion set on the first trading day, Jan. 11, according to data shared by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

The figures on both days excluded volume from Grayscale’s converted Bitcoin ETF product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

BlackRock’s IBIT took in the most volume on Feb. 26 with $1.29 billion, setting its own daily record by about 30%, while Fidelity’s FBTC came in second at $576 million.

JPMorgan Says Its “Trading Venues” Are Under Investigation While It’s Still on Probation for Prior Trading Crimes

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Last Friday, ahead of a three-day weekend when bad news could be expected to evaporate into the ether by the next news cycle, JPMorgan Chase dropped a bombshell in its 10-K (annual report) filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The bank, which has admitted to an unprecedented five criminal felony counts since 2014, said its “trading venues” were under investigation by three unnamed regulatory bodies.

This is a very serious matter for this particular bank because three of its prior felony counts involved rigging markets. The bank admitted to rigging foreign exchange markets in 2015 and to rigging, for more than eight years, the precious metals and U.S. Treasury markets in an agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice in September 2020.

The 'Next Big Thing' Might Be Getting in Your Way

Scientists at PepsiCo (PEP) have spent 70 years and billions of dollars chasing the right combination of lemon and lime.

And they still haven't figured it out.

We can go back nearly 100 years to understand Pepsi's struggles...

In 1929, one company out of St. Louis first created the soft drink 7UP. At the time, and throughout the next two decades, this soda was laced with lithium as a calming agent.

As you can imagine, folks were hooked. 7UP stormed the beverage market and was a dominant soda for decades.

Then, in the 1970s, Sprite began to steal 7UP's market share. Its brand benefited from generous marketing spending and associations with hip-hop stars and other edgy artists. In 1986, rapper Kurtis Blow recorded an ad touting Sprite's taste... "Great lymon taste, it's tough," Blow rapped. "Without lymon, it's not happening. So sorry, 7UP."

Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgage Balances, Delinquencies, and Foreclosures

When will it get messy for our Drunken Sailors? Not now.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Mortgage balances outstanding ticked up by 0.9% in Q4 from Q3, to a record of $12.3 trillion. Year-over-year, the increase was only 2.8%, according to data from the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report.

This small increase in mortgage balances is the result of a strange mix: Purchases of existing homes have plunged by one-third, and mortgage origination volume has collapsed, with existing home prices still sky high; but new house sales have held up, as prices have dropped 17%. And homeowners with these infamous 3% mortgages are not selling, and they’re not buying, and so they’re not paying off their 3% mortgages, and they’re not getting bigger new mortgages.