Credit Suisse Tanks Yesterday to $3.02; It’s Lost Over 90 Percent of Its Market Value Since 2007; It’s Not Alone

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens:

Credit Suisse continued its long death spiral yesterday, losing 15.64 percent of its market value in one trading session to close at $3.02 on the New York Stock Exchange. The trading action came on the heels of an earnings report that was excruciatingly bad – even for Credit Suisse.

The Global Systemically Important Bank (G-SIB), which means it’s interconnected to other G-SIBs that could bring down the global financial system, reported yesterday that its clients had yanked over $100 billion in just the fourth quarter — which was more than eight times the outflow in the third quarter. Its pre-tax loss for the quarter was $1.51 billion, marking its fifth consecutive earnings loss.

This Is the Last, Best Crypto Opportunity of Our Lifetime

By Teeka Tiwari

Right now, we’re at a special moment in history…

You see, the crypto bear market we’re in will be the final one we’ll ever see.

Let’s take a brief tour of history to show you what I mean.

Think about the early days of the internet.

After the dot-com crash of 2000 and high-profile blow-ups like Pets.com, many in the mainstream media called the internet a “passing fad.”

And they were all wrong. The internet became one of the most transformational technologies in history.

Internet stocks reigned over the stock market for the next two decades.

But if you dig a little deeper, you’ll notice the best tech stocks never came back down again in such a stunning fashion.

US gov’t $1.5T debt interest will be equal 3X Bitcoin market cap in 2023

By William Suberg

The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

bulls do not need to wait long for the United States to start printing money again.

The latest analysis of U.S. macroeconomic data has led one market strategist to predict quantitative tightening (QT) ending to avoid a “catastrophic debt crisis.”

Analyst: Fed will have “no choice” with rate cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to remove liquidity from the financial system to fight inflation, reversing years of COVID-19-era money printing.

While interest rate hikes look set to continue declining in scope, some now believe that the Fed will soon have only one option — to halt the process altogether.

“Why the Fed will have no choice but to cut or risk a catastrophic debt crisis,” Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, summarized on Jan. 27.

“Higher for longer is a fantasy not rooted in math reality.”

Henrich uploaded a chart showing interest payments on current U.S. government expenditure, now hurtling toward $1 trillion a year.

A dizzying number, the interest comes from U.S. government debt being over $31 trillion, with the Fed printing trillions of dollars since March 2020. Since then, interest payments have increased by 42%, Henrich noted.

Why Oil's Hot Streak Will Continue in 2023

By Chris Igou

A 23% decline in a month completed oil's round trip.

The commodity was trading around $75 per barrel before soaring to $120 in the first half of 2022. Then, oil fell... and fell some more.

From November 4 to December 9, oil fell 23% to its lowest level in more than a year. That's a scary move to the downside. But it wasn't the nail in the coffin for oil that you might think...

More often, quick drops like these can't last. The sprint lower eventually ends. And when that happens, assets can come roaring back.

Since its bottom in December, the price of oil is up 15%. But the rally isn't over yet.

This comeback is likely just getting underway. And one hot streak shows just how good it could get going forward...

Prices of Existing Homes Fall 11% from Peak. Sales Hit Lockdown Low. Cash Buyers and Investors Pull Back Hard

by Wolf Richter

Priced right, any home will sell. But sellers are not wanting to price their homes right.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

This is getting relentless: Sales of previously owned houses, condos, and co-ops fell by 1.5% in December from November, the 11th month in a row of month-to-month declines, and by 34% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.02 million homes, roughly matching the lockdown-low in May 2020, and beyond that the lowest since the depth of Housing Bust 1 in 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors today.

Priced right, just about any home will sell, but sellers are not wanting to price their homes right. And potential sellers are sitting on their vacant homes, hoping for a quick end to this downturn, or they’re putting it on the rental market or try to make a go of it as a vacation rental, rather than dealing with the reality of a mind-blowing housing bubble that has loudly popped

The Next Wave of Raw Material Shortages Is Already Here

Nomi Prins

Rachel’s note: During the COVID pandemic, the world experienced extreme supply chain shortages.

Because of this, we ran into empty shelves at grocery stories, skyrocketing prices at gas stations, and massive unemployment.

Thankfully, these conditions are in the past now. But just because we’ve managed to bounce back in many ways, that doesn’t mean that supply chains aren’t still feeling the pinch.

The lagging effect is only beginning to show for some industries. Companies are dealing with all-time low inventories of raw materials, which go into most products from equipment to advanced technology.

Sectors to Watch in 2023 Part 2: Lithium, Green Hydrogen, Uranium

Last week we profiled 3 sectors that caught our attention.

Carbon, Gold (and silver) and cybersecurity were at the top of my list…

With the first two at the top of my portfolio in terms of position size.

This week I’ll detail several other sectors our team is researching and analyzing closely for hidden gems.

Lithium

Lithium is an interesting sector and by now most investors know this is a critical element in a net zero world.

When you think batteries, you think lithium. And the world will need a LOT of it.

The intense hockey stick price rise in lithium also caught the attention of investors. In 2021, lithium prices in China rose 400 percent.

Then in 2022, prices nearly doubled again, finishing the year up 80%.

And it was one of the hottest sectors in 2022 even though it didn’t catch much mainstream attention.

Demand for lithium continues to soar and the projections show demand forecasts increasing up to 10x by 2030.

China: Death of a Dream

By James Rickards

China is reopening.

The China reopening story is the most powerful market narrative going on today. At least for now, it’s more powerful than any Fed analysis, the prospect of a recession, and even lower energy prices in terms of what’s driving investor behavior.

Of course, the key word is “narrative.”

It’s a powerful story but that does not mean the story is true. If it affects investor behavior, then investors have to pay attention to avoid getting run over by bull market sentiment. It can take time, but whenever a narrative diverges from reality, the reality always wins.

That will prove true with China.