You Can't Trust the Numbers You Read on Wall Street

Few things make a stock go up or down more than its quarterly earnings announcement.

If a company beats Wall Street's expectations, the stock usually takes off. If it doesn't, the stock often plummets.

But I've discovered something controversial about these earnings announcements... something so eye-opening, I've been invited to lecture about it at Harvard, Wharton Business School, and the world's top chartered financial analyst ("CFA") societies.

Simply put: You can't trust any of the numbers you read on Wall Street.

But as I'll explain in today's essay, I've developed a way to correct for this using something called "forensic analysis."

Dark Market Secrets

Stock market bottoms are hard to spot.

You can run any number of analytical tools, add trendlines or your favorite indicators and try to confirm data.

But in the end…

The bottom comes when investors throw in the towel and have no more shares to sell.

And the next major up-move comes when a new firehose of capital comes rushing in.

This applies to tech, crypto, mining, energy, and every market sector.

It’s going to be a harsh reality and truth. Once you’re prepared, will see the markets as they truly are: Powerfully cyclical.

And the Dark Market Secret you’ll learn today is one you won’t find on stock screeners…

Or nearly any newsletter you pay for.

It’s Called Shareholder Turnover

Bitcoin long-term hodlers begin ‘distribution’ which preceded BTC price bottoms

By Williams Suberg

Long-term holders begin ‘distribution’

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD stuck between $29,000 and $30,000 into the weekend.

The pair had managed a revival to near $31,000 the previous day, but the last Wall Street trading session of the week put pay to bulls’ efforts.

As “out-of-hours” markets offered thin volumes but little volatility, eyes were on the potential direction of what would be an inevitable breakout.

“The weekly chart on Bitcoin looks nothing short of horrific and so the trend continuation remains. I do think we consolidate a little longer in this range before dropping eventually,” Crypto Tony announced on the day in part of a series of tweets.

Rising Inflation Is Here to Stay, But You Can Protect Your Wealth

By David Forest, editor, Casey Daily Dispatch

$7.25.

That’s the federal minimum wage in the U.S…

And in California, you could pay more than that for a single gallon of gas.

Across the state, 11 gas stations are starting at $7.29 a gallon.

Think about that. If you use one gallon of gas to drive to work at a minimum wage job… your first hour is paying for your transportation.

That’s insane.

It’s also the first time in history that gas prices are above $4 per gallon in all 50 states.

Not to mention the other number you see at gas stations…

As I explained yesterday, diesel fuel prices are spiking faster than oil.

And rising prices aren’t unique to the U.S.…

Our Overlords Say Inflation and Energy Shortages Are “Worth It”

By Simon Black

Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, risks to your prosperity… and on occasion, inspiring poetic justice.

School Board Member Hosts Youth Event at Her Sex Shop

Jenn Mason is a member of the Bellingham School Board in Washington state.

She also owns a sex shop called WinkWink.

And now she is hosting an event for “queer youth (0 to 18 years old)” at her sex shop.

Powered by (Formerly) Huge Gains from Real Estate, Stocks, Cryptos, as “Real” Incomes Lag? “Real” Consumer Spending Rises, Spending on Services Jumps

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Americans outspent inflation by a good margin in April. “Real” spending on goods – what consumers buy at retailers, adjusted for inflation – rose for the month but was down from the stimulus-miracle peak last year. “Real” spending on services (such as healthcare, travel, entertainment, etc., adjusted for inflation) jumped, after having collapsed during the pandemic, as the shift in spending from goods back to services continues in a sign that the distorted stimulus-economy is normalizing. Services spending is the biggie, accounting for over 60% of total consumer spending.

“Real” spending rose, approaching pre-pandemic trend.

Inflation adjusted spending on goods and services jumped 0.7% in April from March, to a new record, and was up 2.8% from stimulus-miracle April last year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. It is now approaching the pre-pandemic trend, as the consumer economy is normalizing at pre-pandemic growth rates, all adjusted for inflation:

For Financial Advisors, Bitcoin Is the Next Nasdaq

By Andy Edstrom

Financial advisors like to talk about how bitcoin (BTC) is just a substitute for the Nasdaq because of its price volatility and high correlation to stocks.

They are more right than they know, but for the wrong reasons. In the 2020s, bitcoin will likely prove to be the driver of investment returns in investors' portfolios, just as the top Nasdaq-listed companies were in the prior decade. Financial advisors had better position their clients accordingly.

Upgrading bitcoin from Amazon to Nasdaq

In late 2020, I argued that bitcoin was the next Amazon. So much has changed since then that this view needs revision. While I still think that bitcoin's future percentage returns are on the same scale as Amazon's (AMZN) were over a decade ago, framing bitcoin's investment potential today in terms of a single company is now too limiting.

“We Are on the Precipice”

By James Rickards

I don’t believe many people grasp the enormity of the global food crisis we’ll be facing in the months ahead. But the world could be on the verge of a massive humanitarian crisis. Let’s dive in…

The supply chain collapse preceded the war in Ukraine, but the war has only intensified the problems. You can see it with your own eyes when you walk into a supermarket and find long stretches of empty shelves in stores that used to be chock-full of food and other merchandise.

Even goods that are available such as gasoline are being sold at much higher prices. Prices for gasoline (and diesel, which is critical for goods transportation) have more than doubled in the past nine months. All of this is clear. The question is will it get worse from here?

Crypto’s Crash: 100-to-1 Leverage Goes Poof!

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: May 16, 2022

BitcoinCrypto was in full-blown crash mode last week, wiping out more than $300 billion in market value. TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin that is supposed to trade at a “stable” $1 value, crashed to a few cents on the dollar. Its sister cryptocurrency, Luna, likewise imploded.

Then there was Bitcoin, which Warren Buffett has called “rat poison squared.” Bitcoin plunged further last week and is now down more than 30 percent year-to-date. So much for the hype that it would be an inflation hedge like gold.