Three Rules to Prepare for the Next Meltdown

By Porter Stansberry

Government deficits are soaring like never before...

As of mid-September, this year's budget deficit represented nearly 6% of U.S. gross domestic product ("GDP") – a level that's unprecedented in U.S. history, outside of wartime or a severe economic downturn.

In other words, the U.S. government is spending as if we're already in a crisis... before any crisis has even begun.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is now aggressively cutting interest rates for the first time since the COVID-19 lockdowns... despite official inflation measures remaining well above the central bank's official 2% target.

I'm no longer sure whether we'll imminently experience a recession and stock market meltdown... or an inflationary boom and stock market melt-up, followed by a severe downturn.

As such, I believe investors should do their best to be prepared for either outcome.

Auto-Loan Balances, Burden, Subprime & Prime Delinquency Rates, and Subprime Dealer America’s Car-Mart in Q3 2024

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Total balances of auto loans and leases for new and used vehicles rose by 1.1%, or by $18 billion in Q3 from Q2, and by 3.1% year-over-year, to $1.64 trillion, according to data from the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report.

But the 3.1% year-over-year growth rate was the second-smallest since Q1 2021, behind only Q2 this year (2.8%) and the third smallest since Q4 2018.

One of the reasons balances grew at a relatively slow rate is that more people are paying cash for their vehicles due to the higher interest rates. For new vehicles, the share of cash purchases rose to 20% in recent quarters, from 18% in Q1 2022. For used vehicles, the share of cash purchases rose to 64%, from 59% in Q1 2022, per Experian data. We’ll look at other reasons for the slower increase in a moment.

Your Trump Investment Guide

By James Rickards

Now that Trump is on his way to the White House as the 47th president, it’s not too soon to start building a portfolio that will outperform the stock market in the early years of the new Trump administration.

This kind of active asset allocation requires close attention to prospective policy details and their possible impact on specific business models. Not all stocks will perform well under the new administration. Some will perform brilliantly.

Let’s first review the likely Trump policies and then consider their impact on certain stocks and sectors.

The Revival of the American System

Under the guidance of Trump advisors Robert Lighthizer (former U.S. Trade Representative) and Peter Navarro (former Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy), Trump will pursue a twenty-first-century version of what was originally known as the American System.