The 'Inflation Illusion' Still Haunts the Economy

By Sean Michael Cummings

Cookie Monster says the dollar is losing its buying power...

Last week, the Sesame Street character's official account on X (formerly Twitter) issued the following viral posts...

By "shrinkflation," the Muppet is referring to a dreaded economic trend...

Companies "shrink" the size or weight of a product while keeping the price the same. The cost per unit is then inflated.

This boosts profits... stiffs consumers... and ultimately debases the value of currency.

Obviously, Cookie Monster isn't an economist. But his tweet carries some ominous economic subtext: Inflation still isn't under control.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.43 Trillion from Peak, to $7.54 Trillion, Lowest since February 2021

Quantitative Tightening has now removed 35% of Treasury securities and 25% of MBS that pandemic QE had added.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $91 billion in February, to $7.54 trillion, the lowest since February 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today.

Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.43 trillion, as quantitative tightening continues on track.

During QT #1 between November 2017 and August 2019, the Fed’s total assets dropped by $688 billion, while inflation was below or at the Fed’s target (1.8% core PCE in August 2019), and the Fed was just trying to “normalize” its balance sheet.

Now inflation is hot, though it has come down a lot, driven by price drops in durable goods, and a plunge in energy prices. But services inflation didn’t cool off enough and now “core services” inflation had gone into a nasty acceleration.

This Study Shows Why Emotional Investors Make Poor Decisions

At one point or another, even the most seasoned and experienced investors have made bad investment decisions.

Whether you heard about a hot stock or crypto and “bought the top” before a big plunge… or you held on to a big gain too long and watched your profits wither away… Fear likely played a role in your decision.

You see, the emotional roller coaster ride shakes many investors out of the market. They buy at tops and sell at bottoms…

This is the main reason the average investor severely underperforms the market. They have incredibly bad timing.

In fact, one study shows that profiting from the market is less about what you buy and more about when you buy and how long you hold.

So Easy a Baby Could Do It

The study – called “Selling Fast and Buying Slow” and authored by professors from the University of Chicago and Massachusetts Institute of Technology – analyzed the historical performance of 783 portfolios owned by both wealthy and institutional investors (like pension and hedge funds).

To judge the performance of these Wall Street elites, the study compared their results to a portfolio of alternatives randomly selected by a baby.

So no investment knowledge or even the ability to read was needed… just a baby randomly pointing at a screen…

And the results were pretty revealing.

Entering a Global Great Depression – David Morgan

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Economic analyst and financial writer David Morgan has gone against the majority in the past with predictions that seemed unbelievable at the time. One prediction last year is the Fed not cutting interest rates in 2023. The Fed didn’t, and Morgan is still predicting there will be no Fed interest rate cut anytime soon. Now, with a record high stock market, Morgan is predicting “We are entering into a global depression the likes of which the world has never seen.” The warning signs are many as Morgan explains, “When we enter a depression, people cannot keep up with inflation. So, they work even harder or more hours to try to make ends meet.”

Another sign, says Morgan, is all the bankrupt businesses that thrive on disposable income such as “Gold’s Gym, Neman Marcus, Hertz, JC Penny, GNC, Pier One, Belk’s founded in 1888, Revlon, David’s Bridal and Bed, Bath and Beyond. That is just a few, and that is the real economy. What you see on that list of bankrupt stores primarily is disposable income. . . . That is a sure sign of a depression. . . . This is a clear, concise and accurate picture of the truth. You don’t have to tell this to the girl with three jobs. She knows what is going on.”

‘New nine’ spot Bitcoin ETF volumes reach new daily high as BTC nears $55K

By Brayden Lindrea

BlackRock’s IBIT made up more than 50% of the daily trading volume and even smashed its own daily record by more than 30%.

exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have notched a new daily record as BTC surged as high as $54,938 on Monday.

Trading volumes for the nine topped $2.4 billion on Feb. 26, beating the prior record of $2.2 billion set on the first trading day, Jan. 11, according to data shared by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

The figures on both days excluded volume from Grayscale’s converted Bitcoin ETF product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

BlackRock’s IBIT took in the most volume on Feb. 26 with $1.29 billion, setting its own daily record by about 30%, while Fidelity’s FBTC came in second at $576 million.

JPMorgan Says Its “Trading Venues” Are Under Investigation While It’s Still on Probation for Prior Trading Crimes

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Last Friday, ahead of a three-day weekend when bad news could be expected to evaporate into the ether by the next news cycle, JPMorgan Chase dropped a bombshell in its 10-K (annual report) filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The bank, which has admitted to an unprecedented five criminal felony counts since 2014, said its “trading venues” were under investigation by three unnamed regulatory bodies.

This is a very serious matter for this particular bank because three of its prior felony counts involved rigging markets. The bank admitted to rigging foreign exchange markets in 2015 and to rigging, for more than eight years, the precious metals and U.S. Treasury markets in an agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice in September 2020.