Bitcoin derivatives traders target $40K BTC price now that Binance is resolved

By Marcel Pechman

BTC futures and options held firm despite a wave of negative news, and data shows traders targeting $40,000.

The cryptocurrency market recently experienced events that were previously expected to present a severe negative price impact, and yet, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $37,000 on Nov. 22 — essentially flat from three days prior.

Such performance was utterly unexpected given the relevance of Binance’s plea deal on Nov. 21 with the United States government for violating laws involving money laundering and terror financing.

Bearish news has had limited impact on Bitcoin price

One might argue that entities have been manipulating Bitcoin’s price to avoid contagion, possibly involving the issuing of unbacked stablecoins — especially those with direct ties to the exchanges suffering from regulatory pressure. Thus, to identify whether investors became highly risk-averse, one should analyze Bitcoin derivatives instead of focusing solely on the current price levels.

The U.S. government filed indictments against Binance and co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao in Washington state on Nov. 14, but the documents were unsealed on Nov. 21. After admitting the offenses, CZ stepped away from Binance management as part of the deal. Penalties totaled over $4 billion, including fines imposed on CZ personally. The news triggered a mere $50 million in BTC leveraged long futures contracts after Bitcoin’s price momentarily traded down to $35,600.

Could it Be the Fed’s Mega-QE Created so Much Liquidity that Tightening Doesn’t Work until this Excess Gets Burned Up?

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

One of the big surprises this year is that the Fed’s 5.5% policy rates and $1.1 trillion in QT have neither meaningfully tightened financial conditions nor slowed the economy.

The Fed has been “tightening” since early 2022 in order to “tighten” the financial conditions, and these tighter financial conditions are then supposed to make it harder and more expensive to borrow which is supposed to slow economic growth and remove the fuel that drives inflation. “Financial conditions,” which are tracked by various indices, got a little less loose, and then they re-loosened all over again. It’s almost funny.

The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) loosened further, dipping to -0.36 in the latest reporting week, the loosest since May 2022, when the Fed just started its tightening cycle. The index is constructed to have an average value of zero going back to 1971. Negative values show that financial conditions are looser than average, and they have been loosening since April 2023, after a brief tightening episode during the bank panic (chart via Chicago Fed):

The Uncomfortable Truth of How War Affects the Markets

By Brett Eversole

The first sirens started blaring at 6:35 a.m...

It was the first warning that an attack was coming. Rockets began raining down, battering central and southern Israel.

On October 7, Hamas – the terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip – fired more than 2,000 rockets into the country. But this was more than an aerial assault. Hamas invaded Israel by air, land, and sea...

Fighters killed civilians indiscriminately. Hamas is now holding more than 200 people hostage – many of whom were taken captive in the first attacks.

Israel has declared war. As of today, just a month after the assault began, the death toll on both sides is in the thousands. I'm sure you've seen the ongoing news coverage.

Terrorists Blowing Up Stuff gives Excuse for Martial Law – Martin Armstrong

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong began 2023 predicting “chaos” would be coming around the world. We have a bloody war in Ukraine, a new conflict with Gaza and Israel, and a wide open U.S. border with the FBI predicting huge terror attacks coming to America. Is this kind of destabilization a coincidence or is it a Deep State globalist plan? Why are the demonic dark powers taking peace from the earth and forecasting big terror events coming to America? Armstrong contends, “It is very simple. Basically, we are looking at a sovereign default. Governments are pushed to the limit at this stage. You even had Fed Head Jay Powell come out last week and say ‘the spending is unsustainable.’ The Biden Administration is a complete corrupt absolute disaster. It’s not really Biden . . . he’s just there to sign whatever they stick in front of him.”

This Is the “Final Collapse” of the Dollar’s Buying Power

By Teeka Tiwari

I remember years ago when my daughter – my middle child – got accepted to a private school. She worked hard to pass that entrance exam.

At the time, some things went askew in my business. And I couldn’t spare the capital needed to send her to a private school.

So I had to sit down with my then-preteen daughter and tell her the hard truth. I said, “Honey, I can’t afford these school fees.”

That conversation haunts me to this day.

Friends, you never get over a wound like that. I’m a far wealthier man now than I was back then, but I still carry the guilt of not being able to provide for my daughter.

I couldn’t give her the opportunity she needed at the time she needed it because I didn’t have the money. I don’t think I’ll ever get over it.

If you’re a parent, you know exactly what I’m talking about.

Here’s why I’m telling you about this painful moment in my life…