In a Very “Hawkish Skip,” the Fed Keeps Rates at 5.25% Top of Range, But Sees Two More Rate Hikes this Year. QT Continues

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Amid massive expectations of a “pivot” or a “pause,” or at worst, a “hawkish skip” followed by one rate hike, the FOMC decided on a “very hawkish skip”: It kept its policy rates unchanged, with the upper end at 5.25%. With this “skip,” the Fed has hiked by 500 basis points in 15 months. The vote was unanimous.

But it sees two more 25-basis-point rate hikes this year, as per its newly updated median projections in its “dot plot.” This turns today’s decision into a “very hawkish skip,”

Federal funds rate target at a range between 5.0% and 5.25%.

Interest it pays the banks on reserves at 5.15%.

Interest it charges on overnight Repos at 5.25%.

Interest it pays on overnight Reverse Repos (RRPs) at 5.05%.

Primary credit rate at 5.25% (what banks pay to borrow at the “Discount Window”).

Stocks Turn Positive, With More Gains to Come

By Brett Eversole

Investing can be as complicated – or as simple – as you make it...

If you want to, you can comb through books about the investing greats. You can learn what makes them tick and how they did what they did.

Then, it's time to roll up your sleeves and get to work. You might do deep-dive research into dozens of companies. You could spend hours picking apart their businesses and scrutinizing their financial statements.

And you'd be doing all that work... while hoping to get an edge over thousands of professional investors who are doing the same thing.

That's the hard way. Sure, it can lead to incredible results. But you can also do darn well by keeping things simple... and sticking with the trend.

All those pros doing the deep research are setting prices. But when prices get moving, they tend to keep moving.

White Gold Mines and Wild Rides

Lithium prices soared to an astounding USD$80,000/tonne last year, only to plummet in recent months.

But don’t be deceived. This rollercoaster is gearing up for another thrilling climb, and you’ll want to grab a seat.

The cause of last year’s surge?

A potent mix of battery demand and COVID-19 supply chain disruptions. Now that prices have settled back to late-2021 levels, you may think the excitement is over.

Think again.

The lithium game is about to change, driven by an insatiable appetite for electric vehicles (EVs). As countries battle climate change and phase out gas-guzzling cars, EV sales are skyrocketing – and so too will the demand for lithium.

As more and more countries take up the fight against climate change and push for bans on the sale of gas-powered vehicles by the end of the decade, this trend in new EV sales will only accelerate.

Electric vehicle sales are projected to triple by 2030… and lithium demand with it.

There is one problem though: as things are now, supply won’t be able to keep up.

DeSantis and the Growing Culture War Around Bitcoin

By Daniel Kuhn

This week CoinDesk published one of the most thought-provoking and balanced articles on bitcoin mining I’ve ever read. The report is focused around the Greenidge bitcoin mining company in upstate New York, which was at the center of a protracted media cycle last year after environmental activists claimed the facility was boiling the waterways and poisoning delicate ecosystems. Those claims went on to influence an actual policy decision by Governor Kathy Hochul restricting bitcoin mining in the state.

The thing is, most of the worst claims about Greenidge were straight up wrong. CoinDesk’s Nik De, Doreen Wang and Cheyenne Ligon took a trip to Dresden, in Upstate New York, to take the temperature of the lake and speak to locals, finding that not a single lawmaker visited the rust-belt town or spoke to its mayor before drafting what is essentially a freeze on new bitcoin miners.

The Creature From Jekyll Island

By Brian Maher

The New Jersey railway station was bitterly cold that night. Flurries of the year’s first snow swirled around street lights. November wind rattled roof panels above the track shed and gave a long, mournful sound among the rafters…

At a gate seldom used at this hour of the night was a spectacular sight. Nudged against the end-rail bumper was a long car that caused those few who saw it to stop and stare.

Its gleaming black paint was accented with polished brass hand rails, knobs, frames, and filigrees. The shades were drawn, but through the open door, one could see mahogany paneling, velvet drapes, plush 4 armchairs, and a well stocked bar. Porters with white serving coats were busying themselves with routine chores…

Home Sales Plunge, Supply Rises, Prices Drop Year-over-Year Most since 2012. Even Investors Pull Back

All-Cash sales plunge 22% as investors don’t feel like overpaying either. The 2023 version of spring selling season is here.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

OK, it’s spring selling season, the famously best times of the year to sell a home, because that’s when prices rise and sales rise due to hot demand from home buyers who were hiding out in the winter. But this year?

The median price of all types of previously owned houses, condos, and co-ops whose sales closed in April fell year-over-year by 1.7% to $388,800, the third month in a row of year-over-year declines, according to the National Association of Realtors. A debacle we haven’t seen since February 2012, when the market emerged from Housing Bust 1. From the peak last June, the median price declined by 6% (historic data via YCharts):

For single-family houses, the median price fell 2.1% year-over-year, the third year-over-year decline in a row, to $393,300. For condos, the median price still ticked up 0.7% year-over-year, to $348,000.