What (Not) to Do About the Yield Curve Today

By Ben Morris

Maybe you've heard the warnings...

The last three times this happened, painful bear markets followed...

And it's teetering on the edge right now.

The warning we're talking about is an interest-rate "inversion" – a rare situation in which short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates.

Today, we'll explain why an interest-rate inversion matters, both for the economy and the stock market. We'll show you how past inversions have correlated with stock market crashes. And we'll discuss what the current situation means for us as traders and investors now.

Let's jump right in...

The specific interest rates we're talking about today are on the two-year (short-term) and 10-year (long-term) U.S. Treasurys.

In a Six-Day Span in March 2020, the Dow Crashed 5,676 Points; the Fed Responded with Almost $1 Trillion in Repo Loans to 24 Trading Houses

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 4, 2022 ~

The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, has a “dual mandate” to target inflation and to maintain “maximum sustainable employment.” The Fed has zero mandate to target a specified level for the Dow Jones Industrial Average or to prevent stock market crashes by printing money out of thin air and pumping it out to the trading houses on Wall Street.

But under Fed Chair Ben Bernanke during the Wall Street crisis in 2008 and Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2019-2020, that’s exactly what the Fed decided to do.

The majority of the stock market is owned by the wealthiest 10 percent of Americans. Thus, when the stock market is bailed out by the Fed, which we can now show overtly occurred from March 9 through March 16 of 2020, the Fed is effectively bailing out the rich.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March Update: Just Before the Great Spike in Mortgage Rates

Raging mania to lock in mortgage rates when they were still at 3.2%. But now they’re near 5%.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

So now we have a new snapshot of the incredibly spiking home prices, topping out at over 30% year-over-year in Phoenix and Tampa, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index today. But these prices predate the Great American Mortgage Rate Spike.

What time span are we talking about?

The “January” home price data released today are a three-month moving average of closed sales that were entered into public records in November, December, and January, reflecting deals and mortgages that were agreed to roughly in October through December, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was around 3.2%.

Bitcoin on track to see its highest weekly close of 2022

Seven-day gains nearing 9% have put BTC price action firmly ahead of every other week so far this year.

Bitcoin on track to see its highest weekly close of 2022MARKET UPDATE

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a fresh spike to near $45,000 overnight into March 27 as the weekend looked set to deliver a decisively bullish close.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD grinding back to higher levels seen days previously after a rejection at just above the $45,000 mark.

While still within its extended trading range with $46,000 as its ceiling, the pair was still firmly on the radar of long-term traders as the weekly close drew near, this being apt to be Bitcoin's highest of the year so far.

A beaten-down sector ready to soar as interest rates rise

I kick off today with March Madness… and some of the best matchups for the rest of the tournament. Speaking of basketball… I just got back from my daughter’s first traveling tournament. I shed some light on the increasing travel demand I’m seeing. [0:17]

We all know inflation is causing prices to rise everywhere… And we should be prepared for them to soar even higher. [5:12]

The Fed recently raised interest rates for the first time since 2018… but it remains well behind the curve fighting inflation. I break down Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s terrible performance. [9:35]

Sectors like the auto industry are struggling amid supply chain woes. I explain which sectors will continue to experience volatility… and which ones to watch for opportunities. [12:05]

Fed Announces Minimum Rate Hike, Spooked by War Impact

By Mike Gleason

Precious metals markets sold off ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. But after Fed officials announced their rate hike, prices recovered somewhat.

Another market that has gone haywire is nickel. It’s not a metal that typically drives headlines, but prices swung so violently in futures markets that trading had to be halted for the first time in 24 years.

Nickel prices doubled in matter of hours last week. An institutional trader had placed big bets that nickel prices would fall and was forced to cover, or buy back, his short positions. An epic short squeeze ensued, followed by a massive sell-off this week.

Some precious metals analysts point to the potential for a similar short squeeze to play out in silver. The paper silver market is heavily shorted by leveraged institutional traders who have no intention or desire to deliver physical metal. In the event of a scramble for scarce supplies of silver, futures markets could become completely unhinged.

In other news, the big question on investors’ minds is how the Federal Reserve’s newly launched rate hiking campaign will impact markets.

On Wednesday, the Fed bumped up its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, as expected. Both equity and precious metals markets responded positively.

5-Count Felon JPMorgan Is at the Center of a New, Multi-Billion Dollar Trading Scandal

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: March 15, 2022 ~

Jamie Dimon Sits in Front of Trading Monitor in his Office (Source -- 60 Minutes Interview, November 10, 2019)

JPMorgan Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, Sits in Front of Trading Monitor in his Office (Source — 60 Minutes Interview, November 10, 2019)

Traders who feel they were robbed of their profits trading nickel last week at the London Metal Exchange (LME) have taken to Twitter to verbally accuse the LME of favoring their “cronies” and behaving like “slime balls.”

Lining up as crony suspect Number 1 are units of JPMorgan Chase who, together, hold the largest number of Class B shares in the London Metal Exchange than any other member. Those units are J.P. Morgan Markets Limited with 25,000 shares; J.P. Morgan Metals Limited with 19,100 shares; and J.P. Morgan Securities with 25,000 shares for a total of 69,100 Class B shares, according to a listing of shareholders on the LME’s website.

Bitcoin Weighed Down by Resistance; Support at $35K-$37K

By Damanick Dantes

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle within a choppy trading range between $37,000 and $45,000. The cryptocurrency is roughly flat over the past week, although the loss of upside momentum could keep sellers active over the short-term.

The downward sloping 100-day moving average, currently at $43,300, has weighed on price action over the past few months. That indicates a downtrend, evidenced by a series of lower price highs since November.

While the downtrend has stabilized within a tight trading range, a lower price high from March 2 indicates limited upside beyond $46,000.